Look, Jethro, those two numbers is equal, hic..
The results in Cowper hardly provides strong evidence that the Sikh community votes in a bloc (relative to the Coalition or Labor at least). Hell, the very reference he quotes seems to inicate that the majority of Arkan's primary vote can't have been Sikh anyway. Worse, if you assume that all Greens preferences and no CDP preferences went to Labor in Cowper, approximately 3/4 of Arkan's supporters must have favoured the coalition rather than Labor.
One wonders how some of the nasty little racists commenting would feel if they realised that, if anything, the 'Sikh voting bloc' in Cowper probably favours the Nationals.......
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Newsflash to Bolt: many of those Sikhs have been in that region way longer than your ancestors have been in Australia. Even if they do tend to vote in a bloc, they have every fucking right to.
Worse, if you assume that all Greens preferences and no CDP preferences went to Labor in Cowper
This assumption is going in the wrong direction for an argument to prove Bolt wrong.
Modelling an 80% preference flow for each would be more realistic (82% of the votes in the Green pile went to Labor last time in Cowper; the votes in the CDP pile went 64% to Nat, 16% to ALP, and 20% to Grn).
Using 80% I get that 55% of the independent's primary vote went to Labor on preferences.
Also, did you stuff up your arithmetic? Even allowing for the numbers to have changed since you wrote this post, using your preference assumptions I always get a figure closer to 2/3 than 3/4.
CDP pile went 64% to Nat, 16% to ALP, and 20% to Grn
Really? wow... I mis-judged them....
Modelling an 80/32 split in Grn/CDP preference to labor I get around 33% of Arkan's supporters favoring Labor.... (the count has been updated since I first posted, incidentally)
Am I misunderstanding how the count works? Labor has 28% primary. We're saying .8*8.5=6.8% prefer Labor to Liberal from Grn camp, .32*2.4=0.768% from CDP camp, which now accounts for 35.568% of voters, which is 37.05% of counted votes, leaving 3.55% of counted votes left unaccounted for favoring Labor (on 40.6% 2PP). That's 3.408% of voters, which is approx. 33.4% of Arkan's primary vote.
Either way, with a population of 2,500 in Coff's harbor (not all of whom will be of voting age), where the population is apparently concentrated it doesn't exactly seem likely that Sikhs even comprise Arkan's primary vote anyway.
Also, did you stuff up your arithmetic?
Maybe.....
35.568% of voters, which is 37.05% of counted votes
What on earth is this step?
4% of the vote was informal....
.... so I'm using a 25/24 conversion factor.
That doesn't make any sense. The primary vote percentages add up to 100. The TPP percentages add up to 100.
You could multiply everyone's vote by 1.04, but then to re-scale it properly you'd have to divide everyone's by 1.04.
Ah...... No, I was only working with percentages, I saw the 4% informal and assumed that was counted as a proportion of the vote (as I think we should). I should have checked if the figures reconciled......
..... I get approx 49.3% Labor on 80/32, then, which is higher than the electorate as a whole.
Maybe those Sikh do tend to vote Labor, just like those pesky Irish immigrants before them. Send those motherfuckers back where they came from, too, says I.
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